Global spending on advertising will drop by almost 7% in 2009, according to ZenithOptimedia in their revised ad expenditure forecast for 2009. Central & Eastern Europe will be most effected (-14%), whereas Latin America the least effected (-2%). Online advertising is predicted to be the only ad medium that will grow in 2009, increasing from $50 billion to nearly $55 billion.

In addition to the overall economic slowdown, the study cites the fact that there are no “quadrennial” events in the US (such as Olympics or elections) as one of the factors which makes the comparison with 2008 even more drastic.

One interesting trend noted by ZenithOptimedia is that spending by FMCG advertisers has generally held up well. These advertisers have many, many product lines and they know that they need to advertise to sell them. Many have maintained their budgets, and some have been able to strike some very favorable deals with media owners.

Here are predictions for the change in ad spend during 2009 for certain countries:

• the US to shrink by 8.7%;
• Canada will remain stable with 0.2% growth;
• France to decline 7.3% decline in France;
• Germany to decline by 5.5%;
• Italy to decline by 5.0%;
• Spain to decline by 10.1%;
• the UK to decline by 8.7%
• China to grow by 5.4% (down from 18.8% last year);
• India to grow by 6.4% (down from 18.9%);
• Indonesia to grow by 7.9% (down from 18.9%);

In terms of spend in different advertising media, only internet is forecast to grow significantly. Much of the growth in online advertising will go to search. Regarding traditional media, newspaper and magazines will shrink, but TV will grow slightly.